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¿FOMC Dovish? Sí, pero hemos adelantado la subida de tipos a septiembre

por José Luis Martínez Campuzano Portavoz Asociación Española de Banca Hace 8 años
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Ya saben que tras escuchar a la Fed ayer (FOMC+Yellen) las bolsas USA subieron ligeramente, el USD se debilitó y la rentabilidad de la deuda 10 años USA bajó hasta niveles de 2.27 %.

Esta fue la reacción del mercado. Y el mercado, claro, siempre tiene razón.

Con todo, nosotros ahora esperamos que la primera subida de tipos sea en septiembre. Y esto deja el camino preparado para al menos (podría haber más) otra subida de tipos más, quizás en diciembre.

Pero, como dijo ayer la propia Yellen, las decisiones se tomarán reunión a reunión.

Les dejó tres ideas adicionales desde la Presidenta de la Fed:

·  I want to emphasize and I think the IMF would agree with this that the importance of the timing of a first decision to raise rates is something that should not be overblown whether it is September or December or March.

·  … since last summer [we] have seen an appreciable increase in the value of the dollar vis-a-vis most of our training partners including emerging markets. So it is a significant appreciation of the dollar and I think we have seen that it had a negative effect on net exports and so served as a something of a drag on the economy and probably that drag is going to continue for some time to come so it is a factor of effecting the outlook. In addition import prices for a nonoil imports continue to fall and I think that is serving to push down a core inflation, a little bit eventually I expect that impact to ebb but it is a factor effecting the outlook that said we obviously have no target for the dollar. We take movements in the dollar in its economy economic impact is one of many factor the affecting the outlook and in spite of the depreciation of the dollar the committee obviously thinks that the economy is likely to do well enough to call likely, likely call for some tightening later this year……. We, of course, do not have a target for the USD, but we feel it is weakening activity and inflation, so draw your own conclusions … and certainly don’t blame us if it goes up anyways.

·  we have received data that suggests that consumer spending is growing at a moderate pace…. car sales, for example, were very strong part of it probably represents pay back for weak sales during the winter months. …  questions at this point about just how much impact we have seen of lower energy prices on consumer spending. …  And I'm not convinced yet by the data that we have seen the kind of response to that that I would ultimately expect. And I think it is hard to know at this point whether or not that reflects a very cautious consumer ….. So I think the jury is out there. But think we have seen some pickup in household spending.

La Fed reconoce que la economía se recupera en el Q2, pero es pronto para valorarlo.

Muchos miembros ven factible dos subidas de tipos en el año, pero aún se debe calibrar con el escenario.

Se revisa a la baja el rango de crecimiento este año, aunque esto era lógico considerando los datos del Q1. Pero se mantienen las previsiones para 2016.

Dovish, bearish, dovish, bearish…y así podríamos seguir.

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